Political unrest and revolutionary conflict in The Arab Spring: A J-Curve Analysis

This article focuses on the political instability and revolutionary wars that occurred in the Arab Spring nations. The J-curve theory, developed by James. C Davies (1962), serves as the basic theoretical framework within which revolutions are sparked following protracted gains in political and economic living circumstances that are interrupted by a rapid reversal. Panel data including variables that measure quantitative factors are analysed statistically using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and logistic regression to determine which causes caused political instability and sparked revolutionary violence in the Arab Spring. The results of the statistical analysis indicate that political factors, rather than economic factors, such as political terror against the population and government cormption are the most relevant in explaining political instability and revolutionary war in the Arab Spring and the developments that followed.